It's anyone's guess right now what the ruling will be. But
it's not out of the question that the Tax anti-injunction act argument will
hold sway and the court will uphold the law by declaring the petition out of
their jurisdiction. But there are ramifications and problems to follow if
that's the way the court goes.
Consider Marbury v. Madison
and the Tax anti-injunction act of 1867 then again in 1954.. (Putting aside the commerce clause argument for
the time being) The President claimed earlier that in 2014 anyone not buying
insurance will be in effect "taxed" via the IRS. (It's a tax if the
IRS is collecting it, right?.) Since that "tax" hasn't occurred yet
the lawsuits are sort of moot for now. . . The admin has dropped that argument
with the declining numbers of the ACA.
However, the Chief Justice is nobody's fool when it comes to
politics. Roberts has ordered the argument
to be renewed thereby providing the court with the ability to rule that the
case is not in their jurisdiction as was decided in Marbury. The argument is
that the Tax Anti-injunction Act prevents the court's jurisdiction over the
case if the healthcare law is perceived as a tax.
So Roberts will be able to pass the buck by actually
upholding the health care law for now so that it can play out in the political
theater this fall and that could be a greater advantage to the Republicans for
this election. But there might be a
price to pay for that strategy for anti-tax activists in the long term if the
Supremes avoid the issue. The declining numbers of the ACA may reverse given
the sanction by the Supreme Court. (Grover Norquist doesn't hold sway here.) And taxes may not
be perceived as something "evil." If the court rules this way then
the first possibility for it come back to the federal courts and/or the Supremes
would not be until 2015.
On the other hand if the court declares the ACA unconstitutional via the Commerce Clause it will put another
weapon in the Democrats' arsenal this fall, claiming that this was just another
Republican/Conservative trick to subvert democracy and to slight the middle
class and avoid healthcare issues or something like that.
Sounds like yet again another HBO movie in the making.
